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A Statistical Model to Predict the 2018-19 NHL Season

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Last year around this time, I wrote about  Player Overall Value , a stat I derived to try and estimate the value an individual hockey player adds to his team. This was based upon a number of stats that you would generally find on a box score, and regressions to determine how much each of these contributed to winning games. Then, I used this to run a projection for the  2017-18 season , which you can read about there (shoutout Vegas for messing things up). This year, forget everything you read about that. I am only partially kidding. This year, I wanted to take a different look at things, primarily to add a different dimension to the projection. That added dimension took the form of point projections for each individual skater that I expect to form the normal lineup for each team in the NHL. To get these, two different methods were taken, one to project goals and one to project assists. Goals To determine how many goals each player was expected to score, I took a loo...
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2017-18 NHL Season Projection

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2017-18 NHL Season Projection In my previous post, I introduced the stat  Player Overall Value , which is a metric that is intended to be an all-encompassing stat, establishing the value of a player. Using an all-encompassing stat paves the way to do a season projection for the coming season, using POV as the main factor.  Method The model is relatively simple. We use each player's POV from the previous two seasons, weighting more heavily for the more recent season. This is also combined with an age curve introduced by Evolving Wild in  this  post, in order to project what their value will be for the coming season. Once the values for the coming season are determined, they are plugged into projected lineups for the season. These lineups are primarily drawn from the projected lineups done by The Hockey News in their season  preview , with a few adjustments based on recent roster moves. Each line is weighted differently for the projected amount of ice t...
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Player Overall Value

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Player Overall Value An all-encompassing stat intended to evaluate the value of a hockey player. The new trend in the statistical analysis of sports is all-encompassing stats. It began in baseball, the most statistically developed sport, with the introduction of WAR, or Wins Above Replacement. This stat is a calculation of a multitude of statistics, calculating the amount of runs that they add, and then this is linked to the amount of wins that they add. This is better explained  here , by Fangraphs.  WAR trickled down once it was developed by baseball, with different versions of all-encompassing stats making its way into basketball, with PER (Player Efficiency Rating), and VORP (Value over Replacement Player) becoming more mainstream statistics. These stats are popular because they make it easy to compare two players, and these stats can be applied to any era, making for interesting debates (Is Mike Trout better than Babe Ruth?).  With the fluidity of ho...
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